Key Points: Economic growth is still slowing despite the talk of a “soft landing”. Given that inflation will likely pick up in the coming months, this creates an environment where the Fed and government can’t rescue markets like they have in the past (due to the risk of exacerbating inflation). The labor force is likely significantly weaker than the low unemployment rate would imply as evidenced by the dramatic rise in the number of disabled workers since 2021 and the negative productivity that exists within the economy. The end result is that economic output per unit of input is weak…
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