Casey Clarke, Author at Cadence Wealth Management

May 17

Little Victories

By Casey Clarke Blog

One of the human impulses that’s most destructive to long-term investment success is the desire to maximize returns regardless of the risk in doing so. Whether this manifests in buying the popular stock of the day hoping for similar results in the future or buying a seemingly more diversified stock market index after a historically stellar run, the allure of good returns can distract us from what matters most – avoiding large losses. Although investing in “the market” via an index fund may not feel like it, at the wrong point in time it can be akin to swinging for…

Mar 16

A Bendy Road

By Casey Clarke Blog

The experience one expects to have in financial markets comes down largely to whether he or she believes market forces are more natural or artificial in nature. By natural, I’m referring to more free-flowing, random, and at times chaotic, whereas artificial represents controlled, planned, and efficient. An investor couldn’t be blamed for thinking the latter given the tremendous efforts monetary authorities and governments generally have made in recent years to steer favorable market outcomes. This effort to control markets, to create a straighter path, has led many to believe that positive investment results are assured and risks of meaningful losses…

Feb 13

Lost In Speculation

By Casey Clarke Blog

When someone gets lost, it doesn’t happen suddenly, nor does the realization of it. It’s a progression from being “not lost”, to being a little turned around, to getting somewhat concerned, more concerned, then officially lost. If one gets lost in the presence of their spouse, then there’s generally some debate about the issue along that progression. Throw in overconfidence, denial, blame, and eventually, if we’re lucky, maybe an admission of some responsibility for getting lost. We all know the feeling when it comes to being lost on the road. Most, if they’re being honest, know the feeling of being…

Jan 23

What Lies Ahead in 2023

By Casey Clarke Blog

This year was a year where effective defense made the difference. To come out of it with positive returns, as nice as that would be, simply wasn’t in the cards without a healthy dose of risk and even more luck. To lose much less than others, or more importantly, what popular asset classes lost, was a huge victory. The question now of course is where does this leave us as we head into 2023? To answer this question, it might be most helpful to think about it within the context of time. In weather, it’s pretty well established that forecasting…

Nov 16

Beachball or Brick?

By Casey Clarke Blog

Anybody with an investment account, regardless of how it’s allocated, is probably well aware that markets are down significantly this year. That hasn’t always been the case, since in previous market downturns there were other asset classes that held up just fine while stocks declined. The first thing to remember is that although these situations aren’t the norm, they do happen. From time to time, everything moves in the same direction. We have no problem with it when that direction is up, but when it’s down, we certainly take notice. A strategy that normally protects well against volatile market periods…

Jul 19

Ask Cadence: What causes inflation and where do we expect it to go?

By Casey Clarke Blog

This question has both a simple textbook answer and one that is much more nuanced. Humans always seek to simplify the complex. We establish shortcuts, or heuristics to help us make sense of things and keep from getting bogged down.

Jun 13

Ask Cadence: Is the recent pullback in stocks almost over? Can I safely invest now?

By Casey Clarke Blog

We don’t think so, and no, it isn’t safe to invest in markets now. Growth has been slowing in recent months and we anticipate the slowdown will accelerate. This was likely even before inflation hit 8.5% and key borrowing rates spiked across the board. Both of these things have and will probably continue to reduce consumption and overall economic activity. The slowdowns we’ve experienced over the last 12 years since the financial crisis didn’t face these same challenges. In addition, stocks remain historically stretched in terms of their price relative to more grounded metrics like sales, cash flows, and overall...

May 12

The Netflix Eruption

By Casey Clarke Blog

As we addressed in the Monkey and the Volcano parable, there eventually comes a time when extreme volcanic pressure releases itself all at once. Markets are no different. Extreme buying pressure over time inevitably leads to sudden eruptions that send prices falling; in many cases faster than they went up. In markets as with volcanos, energy and volatility doesn’t disappear, it simply transmutes into another form. If you’ve been paying attention to financial markets the last few weeks, you’ve probably picked up on the fact that this process seems to be playing out currently. Netflix has been a good example...

Jan 12

Pick Your Poison

By Casey Clarke Blog

We typically operate day to day within the guardrails of precedent, making decisions and evaluating outcomes based on what we’ve observed and those things that have played out in the past. Certain rhythms repeat for certain reasons which is why more times than not, this modus operandi not only makes sense, but is wise. There’s a reason we should respect and learn from our elders. There’s also a reason why as we age, we tend to become a little jaded about certain things – we often see the same mistakes being made over and over again. The boom/bust cycle is…

Dec 14

The Danger of Owning the “Market”

By Casey Clarke Blog

As of the time this article is being written, October has shaped up to be another stellar month for the stock market. Going back to the lows in March of last year, the S&P 500 has more than doubled, pretty much erasing the horrific experience of one of the most acute declines in history from investors’ memories. Chalk it up as just another near miss, shot across the bow, or tremor before the ever-so-elusive big quake. As the frequency of these temporary market declines increases, investors seem to grow more and more complacent and take bigger and bigger risks; after…

Casey Clarke

Little Victories

A Bendy Road

Lost In Speculation

What Lies Ahead in 2023

Beachball or Brick?

Ask Cadence: What causes inflation and where do we expect it to go?

Ask Cadence: Is the recent pullback in stocks almost over? Can I safely invest now?

The Netflix Eruption

Pick Your Poison

The Danger of Owning the “Market”

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