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It Pays to Know What’s Under the Target-Date Fund Hood

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Target-date funds have been growing in popularity over the years with their promise that the investments inside them would change over time to stay aligned with their aging investors’ needs for lower volatility and more downside protection as they approached retirement.  Three years ago we wrote a piece (see below) on how important it is for investors to really know just how much risk their target-date funds carry inside them, because we believed that most investors as they approached retirement would want more protection than target-date funds are structured to give.  Fast forward to this year and many target-date funds…

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Ask Cadence: “I suppose you’re getting a lot of calls right now. . .”

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That’s not technically a question, but there are any number of questions contained in that sentence: “Are other people worried right now?  Should I be worried right now?  Are you guys worried right now?. . .” When I hear this question from a client, I always take it to mean there is some amount of worry being experienced on the other end of the phone, but my client doesn’t know if he or she should be worrying. Rather than admit to that worry straight out, it feels safer to ask if other people are experiencing the worry.  So, when a client says, “I suppose you’re getting…

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Ask Cadence: Is the recent pullback in stocks almost over? Can I safely invest now?

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We don’t think so, and no, it isn’t safe to invest in markets now. Growth has been slowing in recent months and we anticipate the slowdown will accelerate. This was likely even before inflation hit 8.5% and key borrowing rates spiked across the board. Both of these things have and will probably continue to reduce consumption and overall economic activity. The slowdowns we’ve experienced over the last 12 years since the financial crisis didn’t face these same challenges. In addition, stocks remain historically stretched in terms of their price relative to more grounded metrics like sales, cash flows, and overall...
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The Netflix Eruption

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As we addressed in the Monkey and the Volcano parable, there eventually comes a time when extreme volcanic pressure releases itself all at once. Markets are no different. Extreme buying pressure over time inevitably leads to sudden eruptions that send prices falling; in many cases faster than they went up. In markets as with volcanos, energy and volatility doesn’t disappear, it simply transmutes into another form. If you’ve been paying attention to financial markets the last few weeks, you’ve probably picked up on the fact that this process seems to be playing out currently. Netflix has been a good example...
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The Monkey, the Volcano, and the Dangers of Rationalizing Risk

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Half way up the slope of a volcano lived a monkey. Like his fellow monkeys, he spent the majority of his days picking and eating fruit off the trees growing on the side of the volcano. Unbeknownst to his friends, however, he dreamed of one day opening his own banana pie stand where he could spend his old age providing delight to others, just making and serving pie, passing the time in enjoyable conversation. And picking lice, of course. He dreamed this every day as he foraged, and it made him happy. But he knew he would only get there…

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How Should I Know If My Diversified Portfolio Returns Are Good Enough?

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It’s not easy for a diversified investor to know what their investments should be returning over most time frames. Just because the S&P 500 is up 15% this year, should you be too?  The S&P 500 plus dividends was up 40% over the past twelve months, but since you have a diversified portfolio, what is a normal return for you over the same period?  For any short-term period, like a year, how do we know if we’re still on track, or if our returns show something has gone wrong? Given the amount of media coverage large cap US stocks receive…

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Pick Your Poison

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We typically operate day to day within the guardrails of precedent, making decisions and evaluating outcomes based on what we’ve observed and those things that have played out in the past. Certain rhythms repeat for certain reasons which is why more times than not, this modus operandi not only makes sense, but is wise. There’s a reason we should respect and learn from our elders. There’s also a reason why as we age, we tend to become a little jaded about certain things – we often see the same mistakes being made over and over again. The boom/bust cycle is…

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Under the Hood

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A sign of exhaustion in markets can be when markets are rising despite not all stocks acting well. When we redefine what is known in the technical analysis world as the Hindenburg Omen by looking at days when there are both at least 1.5% of stocks on the Nasdaq exchange making new highs and new lows, and look at those days cumulatively, we can observe this cumulative Hindenburg Omen signal as a very clear early warning sign of major market tops going back almost 50 years. What’s this indicator suggesting right now? Nothing good.   Important Disclosures This blog is…

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The Danger of Owning the “Market”

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As of the time this article is being written, October has shaped up to be another stellar month for the stock market. Going back to the lows in March of last year, the S&P 500 has more than doubled, pretty much erasing the horrific experience of one of the most acute declines in history from investors’ memories. Chalk it up as just another near miss, shot across the bow, or tremor before the ever-so-elusive big quake. As the frequency of these temporary market declines increases, investors seem to grow more and more complacent and take bigger and bigger risks; after…

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