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Steve DeBoth

Are the Magnificent Seven Stocks a Blessing or a Curse?

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A feature of late-stage bull markets is the dominance of large cap companies.  Coming out of recessions, small companies are seen to be more nimble, able to take faster advantage of the conditions present after the excesses of the economy have been painfully cleared.  Before too long mid-sized companies start to come into their own, and then finally large companies start to swing around, like oil tankers making a big turn.  The advantage being nimble has eventually gives way in a maturing economy to sheer scale – big companies tend to dominate later stages of the economic cycle, with the…

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Winning on the Downside

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In the earliest days of the United States, tender and weakened from the 7 years of fighting to free itself from England, the debts acquired to fund the Revolutionary War had piled up with only troublesome methods of repayment left as options.  Many who supported independence from England did so because they did not like paying the taxes England had levied, so raising money through taxes was not an attractive option for the newly minted Treasury.  Issuing currency to pay those debts was also tricky, as with a mostly barter economy back then, any kind of liquidity injected into the…

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Big Changes to the Federal Student Aid Process Starting this Fall

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In order for returning college students or incoming senior high school students to be eligible to receive federal financial aid, like Pell Grants, they need to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA®) by the fall of the year BEFORE they are to attend college.  So, for anyone intending to attend college in the fall of 2024, they need to fill out a FAFSA form in 2023.  Normally, the soonest the forms can be accessed is October 1st of every year, but this year will see significant changes to the FAFSA forms and the access to those forms…

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How Are Your Cash and Securities Protected When Banks Fail?

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We have any number of risks to manage in our lives. When it comes to our financial well-being, few risks make us feel as nervous as a banking crisis. In 2008 it was revealed that many financial institutions owned worthless mortgage-backed securities, which sent financial markets around the world into a tailspin. Historically, however, most bank failures were caused by good old fashioned, “It’s a Wonderful Life” style runs on the bank. What makes bank runs scary is that we all know the bank doesn’t have all of our money on hand, as they’ve loaned as much as they can…

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2022 Asset Class Returns: Year in Review

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Toward the end of last year’s “Year in Review” piece I wrote: “You may be in the camp of investors that sees a year like this year as an opportunity lost as opposed to a sign that we have entered dangerous stock market times.”  2021 was one of those years where the US stock market outperformed most other investment categories by enough that it may have been easy for investors to assume there was less risk in the market than there really was at the end of last year. Unfortunately, to many investors’ surprise, 2022 came along and proved that,…

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My Portfolio Has Lost Value—Now What?

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When your investments are going up, it’s easy to picture how you’ll react when they go down because you don’t really feel it.  Not at that moment.  In fact, you’re feeling pretty good, what with your investments going up and all.  It sure is different when the actual down period hits, though, isn’t it?  We are ten months into this current stock market downturn and a traditional diversified portfolio of half stocks and half bonds is down roughly -18%.  Our corresponding portfolios at Cadence are down a fair bit less than that, but more on that later.  Ten months into…

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Managing Cashflow During Inflationary And Recessionary Times

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Nothing reminds you of what you should be doing but aren’t like a good dose of uncertainty.  Inflation and recessions both have the ability to add uncertainty to our lives in the form of higher prices for our necessities, temporary investment losses, and the potential for reduced income.  When you are used to having a certain level of income, be it from employment or investments, and a certain level of expenses, any changes in the wrong direction can be a good wakeup call that what you should be doing to overcome these challenges is probably what you should have been…

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It Pays to Know What’s Under the Target-Date Fund Hood

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Target-date funds have been growing in popularity over the years with their promise that the investments inside them would change over time to stay aligned with their aging investors’ needs for lower volatility and more downside protection as they approached retirement.  Three years ago we wrote a piece (see below) on how important it is for investors to really know just how much risk their target-date funds carry inside them, because we believed that most investors as they approached retirement would want more protection than target-date funds are structured to give.  Fast forward to this year and many target-date funds…

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Ask Cadence: “I suppose you’re getting a lot of calls right now. . .”

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That’s not technically a question, but there are any number of questions contained in that sentence: “Are other people worried right now?  Should I be worried right now?  Are you guys worried right now?. . .” When I hear this question from a client, I always take it to mean there is some amount of worry being experienced on the other end of the phone, but my client doesn’t know if he or she should be worrying. Rather than admit to that worry straight out, it feels safer to ask if other people are experiencing the worry.  So, when a client says, “I suppose you’re getting…

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The Monkey, the Volcano, and the Dangers of Rationalizing Risk

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Half way up the slope of a volcano lived a monkey. Like his fellow monkeys, he spent the majority of his days picking and eating fruit off the trees growing on the side of the volcano. Unbeknownst to his friends, however, he dreamed of one day opening his own banana pie stand where he could spend his old age providing delight to others, just making and serving pie, passing the time in enjoyable conversation. And picking lice, of course. He dreamed this every day as he foraged, and it made him happy. But he knew he would only get there…

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