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Half way up the slope of a volcano lived a monkey. Like his fellow monkeys, he spent the majority of his days picking and eating fruit off the trees growing on the side of the volcano. Unbeknownst to his friends, however, he dreamed of one day opening his own banana pie stand where he could spend his old age providing delight to others, just making and serving pie, passing the time in enjoyable conversation. And picking lice, of course. He dreamed this every day as he foraged, and it made him happy. But he knew he would only get there…
It’s not easy for a diversified investor to know what their investments should be returning over most time frames. Just because the S&P 500 is up 15% this year, should you be too? The S&P 500 plus dividends was up 40% over the past twelve months, but since you have a diversified portfolio, what is a normal return for you over the same period? For any short-term period, like a year, how do we know if we’re still on track, or if our returns show something has gone wrong? Given the amount of media coverage large cap US stocks receive…
We typically operate day to day within the guardrails of precedent, making decisions and evaluating outcomes based on what we’ve observed and those things that have played out in the past. Certain rhythms repeat for certain reasons which is why more times than not, this modus operandi not only makes sense, but is wise. There’s a reason we should respect and learn from our elders. There’s also a reason why as we age, we tend to become a little jaded about certain things – we often see the same mistakes being made over and over again. The boom/bust cycle is…
A sign of exhaustion in markets can be when markets are rising despite not all stocks acting well. When we redefine what is known in the technical analysis world as the Hindenburg Omen by looking at days when there are both at least 1.5% of stocks on the Nasdaq exchange making new highs and new lows, and look at those days cumulatively, we can observe this cumulative Hindenburg Omen signal as a very clear early warning sign of major market tops going back almost 50 years. What’s this indicator suggesting right now? Nothing good. Important Disclosures This blog is…
As of the time this article is being written, October has shaped up to be another stellar month for the stock market. Going back to the lows in March of last year, the S&P 500 has more than doubled, pretty much erasing the horrific experience of one of the most acute declines in history from investors’ memories. Chalk it up as just another near miss, shot across the bow, or tremor before the ever-so-elusive big quake. As the frequency of these temporary market declines increases, investors seem to grow more and more complacent and take bigger and bigger risks; after…
With the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at zero and Fed Chairman Powell saying last month that the Fed “is not even thinking about thinking about raising rates”, interest on your cash reserves is very hard to come by. Also, as we’ve talked about in prior Cadence Clips pieces, inflation has been gaining steam, which further erodes the purchasing power of your cash. So, what is one solution if you want to keep a cash reserve but also earn some interest without any downside risk to your principal? CDs used to be an answer, but as of the writing of…
As summer ends and fall begins, another seasonal event is about to happen: workplace open enrollment. If your employer offers benefits, now is a good time to reexamine your options and coverages to see if you should make any changes before enrolling for your 2022 plan year. Not all employers have their open enrollments in the fall, but this is still a good time to evaluate what is on offer so you’ll be ready when the time comes. And of course, at Cadence we’re available to help you navigate through your options. Health Insurance Plans Even if you plan to…
When people feel like they have a lot of control over their lives, uncertainty is a mild irritant at worst, and a fun challenge at best. The uncertainty of what you’re going to do when you wake up in an exotic hotel and your vacation day is completely unplanned is one of life’s joys. However, the uncertainty of what you would do if you lost your income, or someone got sick, or your expenses suddenly increased is one of life’s great anxiety-inducers. The global pandemic has both made us more aware of the uncertainties that are always present, as well…