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We don’t think so, and no, it isn’t safe to invest in markets now. Growth has been slowing in recent months and we anticipate the slowdown will accelerate. This was likely even before inflation hit 8.5% and key borrowing rates spiked across the board. Both of these things have and will probably continue to reduce consumption and overall economic activity. The slowdowns we’ve experienced over the last 12 years since the financial crisis didn’t face these same challenges. In addition, stocks remain historically stretched in terms of their price relative to more grounded metrics like sales, cash flows, and overall...

As we addressed in the Monkey and the Volcano parable, there eventually comes a time when extreme volcanic pressure releases itself all at once. Markets are no different. Extreme buying pressure over time inevitably leads to sudden eruptions that send prices falling; in many cases faster than they went up. In markets as with volcanos, energy and volatility doesn’t disappear, it simply transmutes into another form. If you’ve been paying attention to financial markets the last few weeks, you’ve probably picked up on the fact that this process seems to be playing out currently. Netflix has been a good example...

A sign of exhaustion in markets can be when markets are rising despite not all stocks acting well. When we redefine what is known in the technical analysis world as the Hindenburg Omen by looking at days when there are both at least 1.5% of stocks on the Nasdaq exchange making new highs and new lows, and look at those days cumulatively, we can observe this cumulative Hindenburg Omen signal as a very clear early warning sign of major market tops going back almost 50 years. What’s this indicator suggesting right now? Nothing good.   Important Disclosures This blog is…

As of the time this article is being written, October has shaped up to be another stellar month for the stock market. Going back to the lows in March of last year, the S&P 500 has more than doubled, pretty much erasing the horrific experience of one of the most acute declines in history from investors’ memories. Chalk it up as just another near miss, shot across the bow, or tremor before the ever-so-elusive big quake. As the frequency of these temporary market declines increases, investors seem to grow more and more complacent and take bigger and bigger risks; after…

With the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at zero and Fed Chairman Powell saying last month that the Fed “is not even thinking about thinking about raising rates”, interest on your cash reserves is very hard to come by. Also, as we’ve talked about in prior Cadence Clips pieces, inflation has been gaining steam, which further erodes the purchasing power of your cash. So, what is one solution if you want to keep a cash reserve but also earn some interest without any downside risk to your principal? CDs used to be an answer, but as of the writing of…

As summer ends and fall begins, another seasonal event is about to happen: workplace open enrollment. If your employer offers benefits, now is a good time to reexamine your options and coverages to see if you should make any changes before enrolling for your 2022 plan year. Not all employers have their open enrollments in the fall, but this is still a good time to evaluate what is on offer so you’ll be ready when the time comes. And of course, at Cadence we’re available to help you navigate through your options. Health Insurance Plans Even if you plan to…

When people feel like they have a lot of control over their lives, uncertainty is a mild irritant at worst, and a fun challenge at best.  The uncertainty of what you’re going to do when you wake up in an exotic hotel and your vacation day is completely unplanned is one of life’s joys.  However, the uncertainty of what you would do if you lost your income, or someone got sick, or your expenses suddenly increased is one of life’s great anxiety-inducers.  The global pandemic has both made us more aware of the uncertainties that are always present, as well…