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We had a piece in the September 2013 Cadence Clips called “The Cost of Panic”.  In it, we showed how investors who panicked and deviated from their investment plans when stock prices dropped from 2007 to 2009 caused irreparable harm to their wealth.  We have certainly seen a shock to global stock markets this year, with the potential for more losses to come.  As of this writing, many asset categories have bounced off their recent lows giving investors an opportunity to breathe a bit.  Many are asking themselves if now would be a good time to get more aggressive, while…

In four weeks, stock markets have given back more than three years-worth of gains. For our number-oriented readers, that equates to losses accumulating 40 times faster than gains. As the expression goes; “risk happens fast”. If the month of March has taught investors one thing, it’s that things can go from completely peachy to chaotically crappy with the blink of an eye. As we’ve been reminding our clients over the months, the ability for this to happen increases dramatically in a system that is historically overextended in debt, valuation, speculation, greed, complacency and complexity. There is no question that Covid-19…

If the latest data using the best meteorological methods available suggests there’s a storm coming and one takes actions to prepare, does that qualify as panic? One of the things we’ve noticed over the years in raising flags about the risks embedded in markets is that those who question the narrative are quickly criticized and labeled as worrywarts, fear mongers, or worse. This tendency has reached a fever-pitch lately with stocks bubbling up even further and the introduction of the Coronavirus. The use of the word “panic” as a pejorative has become commonplace similar to how most use the term…

On December 20, 2019 the President signed into law the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act (the SECURE Act). The new law is intended to expand opportunities for individuals to increase their retirement savings. Some of the changes give people more flexibility and others, less so. We’ll start with the changes that will impact the most people first and work our way down. A new start date for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) from IRA’s and retirement plans The SECURE Act raises the age after which you must begin taking RMDs from 70 ½ to 72. This is nice…

The world most of us were born into included headlines in the morning papers (which were from the night before), headlines in the evening papers, an hour block of local and national news, and then late night local news to round it all out before the cycle began again.  There were some news radio stations during the day, but mostly on AM radio, and mostly ignored.  That’s almost all the headline time and space that needed to be filled.  Sure there were some deeper dives being taken on a regular basis, like Sunday morning political shows or “60 Minutes”, and…

In this month’s Cadence Clips newsletter, we discussed the fact that not all is well within the belly of this bull market. Although indexes are near all-time highs, that’s not the case for all stocks within those indexes. We refer to this phenomenon as internal divergence or the market having “weak internals”. In assessing the state of the market internals, we made reference to the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index as well as the Dow Transportation Index and observed a market that appears very sick from within. Below are two follow-up charts to our Clips discussion that provide both a longer-term…

Employer-provided retirement plans have some tremendous advantages over other investment accounts.  They are convenient, allow for relatively large contributions, and usually receive employer-provided matching contributions.  Unfortunately, they also have some large disadvantages, some of which matter more today than they have since the last major market crash, like a serious lack of diversification options.  If the next major financial crash is like the last one, where both stocks and bonds lose meaningful value, then there is nowhere to hide in a 401(k) or 403(b) plan that does not have alternative investment options.  Likewise, seemingly diversified options like retirement date or…

As a follow-up to an article in our last monthly newsletter, “Zombie Bull Disease”, we mentioned that the next few weeks would be important in learning whether or not the Federal Reserve’s “all in” monetary policy intervention would be enough to save the economy and markets from the downward part of the cycle. What we’ve learned in the three weeks since writing the piece is that although stock markets have marched higher in true zombie fashion, completely unfazed by any news that would typically cause at least temporary volatility in prices, things are not normal by any stretch. We continue…

The history of estate taxes in the United States is convoluted, and that is an understatement.  There is little point in reviewing all the various changes federal estate taxes have gone through over the decades aside from pointing out the taxes that used to be imposed on estates large enough to be taxed were so high that avoiding federal estate taxes was the main reason many people did estate planning.  Paying 40% or more to the federal government made paying any state-imposed estate taxes at their much lower rates seem like small potatoes.  The objective, then, was to reduce federal…