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What we’re experiencing in the financial markets right now is unique while at the same time very similar to previous bull markets. Those contending that this time is different are correct. We’ve never had synchronized global monetary easing on the scale we’ve witnessed over the last few years. This is new, and without question one of the primary drivers of this epic bull market run. The liquidity created by central banks around the world has created the desired effect – inflation. The only problem is that it hasn’t translated into price inflation to the extent desired (by central bankers) which…

Bubbles are dynamic and as a result, different each time. But one common theme amongst them has been the tendency for interest rates to play a role in their eventual demise. Looking back 30 years, there seems to be a causal relationship between rising rates and poor stock market performance. More times than not when the 24-month change in 10-year treasury rates spiked upward, stocks ran into trouble. Practically every sizable correction in stocks was preceded by an acute increase in interest rates. But rising rates don’t just signal possible trouble for stocks, they also mean there’s a current problem…

This current bull market started in March 2009, making it the second longest bull market in investment history. You can just glance at a chart of the S&P 500 and see that bull markets, especially big ones, do eventually come to an end. What has been unusual about this particular bull market is not only the duration going on nearly 9 years now, but also the relatively low level of volatility we’ve experienced along the way. This part of the market cycle has a sinister way of lulling people into feeling like there’s less risk in the stock market than…

Most employers, especially the medium and large-sized ones, provide some sort of retirement plan.  A large percentage of those are traditional 401(k)s, where you contribute pre-tax dollars into the plan, you do not pay any taxes on gains inside the plan, and then every single dollar you take out of the plan in the future is fully taxable.  Another well-known retirement account is the Roth IRA, which is almost the complete opposite of the 401(k).  Like 401(k)s, the growth inside Roth IRAs is not taxed, but unlike 401(k)s, post-tax dollars go in, you can’t save into them right out of…

Life is complicated, but does passing money to your beneficiaries have to be also? In theory it shouldn’t, as all you want to specify is “when I die, give this much to these people”. That sounds so simple, yet when it comes time to create a process that would allow that to happen, a lot of picky little details get in the way. Getting any of them wrong increases the chances that your estate plans could go awry. Consider these eight ways to get your estate strategy correct: 1) The More Accounts and Institutions, the More Paperwork. Every account you…

Let’s keep this simple. U.S. stocks by almost any measure that doesn’t obscure reported earnings are either at or very near record levels. Here’s a look at a couple valuation measures we’ve discussed in the past – the Shiller CAPE and the S&P 500/GDP. What’s immediately noticeable from both measures (shaded in blue) is that they are toward the top of their historical ranges, exceeded only by the tech bubble in 1999. What both of these charts don’t show however is what happens when we adjust for the above average corporate margins and below average economic growth that we’re observing…