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Recession

Ask Cadence: What’s the latest on the economy? Is it growing or shrinking? I hear mixed messages.

By Blog

The economy, when looked at through a number of activity and production-based data points other than just GDP, decelerated substantially from its peak in 2021, seems to have troughed last year, and has risen modestly since then. We can say, in looking at our index of economic activity below, that although overall activity doesn’t seem to be weakening meaningfully in recent months, it’s anything but robust. Our index puts us right around the flatline, reflecting stagnation. What’s important to note, however, is that the popular definition for recession is when unemployment rises to match the underlying economic weakness. On this…

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Market Update – “Investing” is Winning

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If you’ve ever wondered why financial media doesn’t talk more about things other than stocks and bonds, it’s generally because it doesn’t serve the business model that allows them to survive, which is another way of saying, there isn’t as much money in it. If risk-adjusted opportunity was most important, or those things that could benefit the viewer most, we’d be hearing a lot more about gold, silver, and other natural resource investments, especially given their performance so far this year. The chart below tells a pretty interesting story – the major stock market indexes are up about 11% (SPY…

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What Lies Ahead in 2023

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This year was a year where effective defense made the difference. To come out of it with positive returns, as nice as that would be, simply wasn’t in the cards without a healthy dose of risk and even more luck. To lose much less than others, or more importantly, what popular asset classes lost, was a huge victory. The question now of course is where does this leave us as we head into 2023? To answer this question, it might be most helpful to think about it within the context of time. In weather, it’s pretty well established that forecasting…

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