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Bubble

Investor or Speculator – Which Are You?

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Speculative manias are incredibly difficult to navigate without injury. For every millionaire produced by the technology bubble of the late 1990’s, there are countless stories of people losing their life savings or worse. Fast-moving markets that are well beyond any reasonable assessment of fair value can reverse course without warning, reason, or sympathy for the investors who don’t have the good fortune to exit the game before the music stops. This is the problem with speculation: because, like moths to a flame, we’re attracted to those assets that are rapidly going up in price and garnering enthusiastic praise, there is…

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Pick Your Poison

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We typically operate day to day within the guardrails of precedent, making decisions and evaluating outcomes based on what we’ve observed and those things that have played out in the past. Certain rhythms repeat for certain reasons which is why more times than not, this modus operandi not only makes sense, but is wise. There’s a reason we should respect and learn from our elders. There’s also a reason why as we age, we tend to become a little jaded about certain things – we often see the same mistakes being made over and over again. The boom/bust cycle is…

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Retirement Uncertainties: Why Financial Planning is Necessary > Issue 6 > The Investment Elephant in the Retirement Room

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You may have to account for at least one, but probably more of the preceding issues before and during your own retirement.  However, the biggest threat that we can think of is also the one that gets almost no attention in the “biggest threats facing retirees” research we conducted, and it illustrates the need for people to work with a professional more than any of the items mentioned in the preceding paragraphs. With the U.S. stock market currently enjoying its longest and largest bull market in history, the potential for large investment losses is very high.   The last two major…

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Either You Believe in Magic or You Believe in Math

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What we have been experiencing in financial markets the last few years has been truly mind-boggling. We would venture to say that nobody could have come even remotely close to forecasting the combination of events that have played out since the global financial crisis in 2008. Above average U.S. stock market growth with below average economic growth? No way. Foreign stocks being worth less ten years later? Not likely. More than $10 trillion in sovereign (governmental) bonds yielding less than 0%? To be clear, this means you pay the government to lend them money. That would be ludicrous. It will…

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The Monkey and the Volcano: A Cadence Fable Revisited

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While we don’t know whether or not the rumblings heard during the 4th quarter of 2018 were just more noise or the precursor of a much larger pyroclastic flow, we thought it may be a good time to revisit the Cadence Fable: The Monkey and the Volcano, originally published in August of 2017… Halfway up the slope of a volcano lived a monkey. Like his fellow monkeys, he spent the majority of his days picking and eating fruit off the trees growing on the side of the volcano. Unbeknownst to his friends, however, he dreamed of one day opening his…

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What to Think of Interest Rates and Bonds – Revisited

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We wanted to revisit a blog post from exactly one year ago today that touched on why a rapid rise in interest rates matters for stocks. At the time – Feb 9, 2018 – interest rates had risen over 100% from their lows in 2016. Our point was that when interest rates, one of the key lubricants particularly in a highly indebted economy rise, it presents a strong headwind to continued growth and could serve to catalyze the changing of the business cycle. This dynamic could be even more pronounced in an environment where financial markets are extremely overvalued which…

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Ask Cadence: If I am not invested in the stock market, am I missing out on these returns forever?

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Any investor who has not been 100% invested in the stock market since March 9, 2009 has missed out on some amount of stock market returns. However, everyone knows very few people should ever be 100% invested in the stock market. Therefore, we are going to miss out on some amount of returns during any period where the stock market outperforms other investment areas. Whether it’s the U.S. stock market or something else, there will always be an investment that outperforms what we own – this is an important concept for investors to grasp. If the risk of an investment…

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