Employment

The economy, when looked at through a number of activity and production-based data points other than just GDP, decelerated substantially from its peak in 2021, seems to have troughed last year, and has risen modestly since then. We can say, in looking at our index of economic activity below, that although overall activity doesn’t seem to be weakening meaningfully in recent months, it’s anything but robust. Our index puts us right around the flatline, reflecting stagnation. What’s important to note, however, is that the popular definition for recession is when unemployment rises to match the underlying economic weakness. On this…