A couple data points to ponder…
First is an update of disabilities across the general population, and more relevant to the economy, within the U.S. workforce. You can see the trend continues to rise since early 2021. Some would have ideas around what might have contributed to this rise. Regardless, there are fewer healthy, productive people available within the workforce to drive economic productivity. AI couldn’t come quickly enough, but with more people sidelined, it begs the question as to the ability of the consumer to spend tomorrow the same way it did yesterday.
The below chart looks at disabilities in the workforce against those in the broad population. The rise since 2021 suggests that whatever is responsible for this decrease in physical wellness was more prevalent in the workplace.
The chart below looks at employment relative to the broad population on a year-over-year basis. As we can see, we’ve been in decline (below zero) for a while now. Looking back more than 70 years, it’s hard to find a time where there was negative growth for any length of time where there wasn’t a corresponding recession. What’s also obvious is that this employment metric often declines toward zero months before we enter recession. Not robust.
Weak fundamentals and asset bubbles typically don’t correlate. One of these things has to change.
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