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Casey Clarke

Aug 14

Markets, Jobs, and AI, Oh My!

By Blog
Key Points: Economic growth is still slowing despite the talk of a “soft landing”. Given that inflation will likely pick up in the coming months, this creates an environment where the Fed and government can’t rescue markets like they have in the past (due to the risk of exacerbating inflation). The labor force is likely significantly weaker than the low unemployment rate would imply as evidenced by the dramatic rise in the number of disabled workers since 2021 and the negative productivity that exists within the economy. The end result is that economic output per unit of input is weak…
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Jul 18

Market Update – Still a Bear Market!

By Blog
There are two environments where it’s most difficult for us as investors to keep our emotions in check and stick to our gameplan. First, when markets are falling and we’re fighting the urge to sell out at the worst possible time, and second, like right now, when markets seem to be moving relentlessly higher and we’re compelled to chase them. Of course, the important question is whether we’re in an environment that’s friend or foe to those markets we’re tempted to chase since the former would justify the risk-taking while the latter would eventually punish it. As always, the best…
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Jun 14

Exiting Financial Repression

By Blog
A few months back, we wrote about the Bendy Road, which highlighted how the most prudent path forward for investors, in our opinion, wouldn’t be without some excitement along the way. After all, any worthwhile road trip must have its fair share of changing scenery and moments of exhilaration. There is rarely a straight, perilless path to anywhere worth going. After a fantastic start to the year for more economically defensive asset categories such as treasury bonds and precious metals, the month of May brought an inevitable pullback in prices that, although deeper than one would like, isn’t at all…
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May 17

Little Victories

By Blog
One of the human impulses that’s most destructive to long-term investment success is the desire to maximize returns regardless of the risk in doing so. Whether this manifests in buying the popular stock of the day hoping for similar results in the future or buying a seemingly more diversified stock market index after a historically stellar run, the allure of good returns can distract us from what matters most – avoiding large losses. Although investing in “the market” via an index fund may not feel like it, at the wrong point in time it can be akin to swinging for…
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Mar 16

A Bendy Road

By Blog
The experience one expects to have in financial markets comes down largely to whether he or she believes market forces are more natural or artificial in nature. By natural, I’m referring to more free-flowing, random, and at times chaotic, whereas artificial represents controlled, planned, and efficient. An investor couldn’t be blamed for thinking the latter given the tremendous efforts monetary authorities and governments generally have made in recent years to steer favorable market outcomes. This effort to control markets, to create a straighter path, has led many to believe that positive investment results are assured and risks of meaningful losses…
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Feb 13

Lost In Speculation

By Blog
When someone gets lost, it doesn’t happen suddenly, nor does the realization of it. It’s a progression from being “not lost”, to being a little turned around, to getting somewhat concerned, more concerned, then officially lost. If one gets lost in the presence of their spouse, then there’s generally some debate about the issue along that progression. Throw in overconfidence, denial, blame, and eventually, if we’re lucky, maybe an admission of some responsibility for getting lost. We all know the feeling when it comes to being lost on the road. Most, if they’re being honest, know the feeling of being…
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Jan 23

What Lies Ahead in 2023

By Blog
This year was a year where effective defense made the difference. To come out of it with positive returns, as nice as that would be, simply wasn’t in the cards without a healthy dose of risk and even more luck. To lose much less than others, or more importantly, what popular asset classes lost, was a huge victory. The question now of course is where does this leave us as we head into 2023? To answer this question, it might be most helpful to think about it within the context of time. In weather, it’s pretty well established that forecasting…
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Nov 16

Beachball or Brick?

By Blog
Anybody with an investment account, regardless of how it’s allocated, is probably well aware that markets are down significantly this year. That hasn’t always been the case, since in previous market downturns there were other asset classes that held up just fine while stocks declined. The first thing to remember is that although these situations aren’t the norm, they do happen. From time to time, everything moves in the same direction. We have no problem with it when that direction is up, but when it’s down, we certainly take notice. A strategy that normally protects well against volatile market periods…
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Jun 13

Ask Cadence: Is the recent pullback in stocks almost over? Can I safely invest now?

By Blog
We don’t think so, and no, it isn’t safe to invest in markets now. Growth has been slowing in recent months and we anticipate the slowdown will accelerate. This was likely even before inflation hit 8.5% and key borrowing rates spiked across the board. Both of these things have and will probably continue to reduce consumption and overall economic activity. The slowdowns we’ve experienced over the last 12 years since the financial crisis didn’t face these same challenges. In addition, stocks remain historically stretched in terms of their price relative to more grounded metrics like sales, cash flows, and overall…
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